Burnley vs Bournemouth Preview: Prediction, Stats & Odds

Form & League Position

Burnley head into this fixture languishing in 19th place in the Premier League with just 19 points from 29 matches, winning only four and losing 18 of those encounters. Their woeful home form shows one win, four draws and three losses, averaging a meagre 0.71 points per game at Turf Moor. Scott Parker’s side have managed 32 goals but shipped 58, leaving them with a goal difference of minus 26.

Bournemouth arrive in considerably better shape, sitting 9th in the table with 40 points from 29 games. The Cherries have secured nine wins, 13 draws and just seven defeats, boasting an impressive away record and averaging 1.07 points per game on the road. Bournemouth have found the net 44 times while conceding 46, averaging 13.8 shots per game with a 13% conversion rate.

The visitors’ recent away form is particularly notable: they are unbeaten in their last five road trips, picking up points against Newcastle (3-3), Brighton (1-1) and West Ham (0-0), and winning away at Everton and Wolverhampton. Burnley, meanwhile, have struggled at home with defeats to Brentford (3-4) and Mansfield (1-2), plus a draw against Tottenham (2-2).

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record historically favours Burnley across their 15 previous encounters, with the Clarets winning seven matches (47%) compared to Bournemouth’s five victories (33%), with three draws (20%). However, recent form tells a different story. In their last six meetings, the sides have shared the spoils with three wins apiece, including a 1-1 draw in December 2025 and Bournemouth’s 2-1 victory in October 2023.

Previous meetings have averaged three goals per game, with 93% of matches seeing over 1.5 goals and 60% exceeding 2.5 goals. Both teams have scored in 67% of their encounters, suggesting an open contest is likely. Clean sheets have been rare, with Burnley keeping just 20% and Bournemouth managing 13% across their head-to-head fixtures.

Tactical Outlook

Burnley are expected to line up in their favoured 3-4-2-1 formation (season rating 6.4), which has produced 12 goals but conceded 17 across eight appearances this season. Key attacking threats include Jaidon Anthony and Zian Flemming, both with seven goals in the Premier League, while Josh Cullen has contributed two goals and two assists from midfield.

Bournemouth will likely deploy a 4-2-3-1 system (season rating 6.6), having scored 41 and conceded 42 across 27 outings in this shape. Antoine Semenyo leads their scoring charts with 10 Premier League goals, supported by Junior Kroupi’s eight strikes. Marcus Tavernier (five goals, four assists) and Marcos Senesi (four assists) provide creative support from deeper positions.

The tactical battle will centre on Bournemouth’s counter-attacking prowess versus Burnley’s desperate need for home points. The visitors’ 50.3% possession average and aggressive press could exploit Burnley’s defensive frailties throughout.

Key Stats to Watch

Prediction

Frequently Asked Questions

The questions below cover the most common queries ahead of Saturday’s match.