The Relegation Derby Nobody Wanted to Win: Spurs vs Forest

Welcome to English football’s most unwanted fixture. Spurs currently sit 16th in the Premier League table with 30 points, whilst Forest trail right behind them in 17th with 29 points. This is not how anyone imagined the 2025-26 campaign would unfold for either club, particularly not for Tottenham, who lifted the Europa League trophy less than 12 months ago.

Tottenham remain the only Premier League side without a top-flight win in 2026. Let that sink in. A club traditionally counted amongst the so-called Big Six, with a state-of-the-art 62,000-capacity stadium and decades of top-flight pedigree, have simply forgotten how to win football matches. They have drawn five and lost seven of their 12 games so far this year.

For Forest, the picture is equally grim. The club sacked Nuno Espírito Santo on 8 September, replaced him with Ange Postecoglou who was dismissed on 18 October after failing to win any of his eight matches, then appointed Sean Dyche on a two-year contract on 21 October before sacking him on 12 February after less than four months in charge. Vítor Pereira was appointed on 15 February on an 18-month deal. Four permanent head coaches in a single season speaks to a level of dysfunction that would make even the most chaotic boardroom blush.

Sunday’s encounter at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium represents far more than three points. It’s a relegation six-pointer between two clubs whose collapse has been as spectacular as it has been unexpected: a disarray derby that could define the fate of both institutions.

Spurs: How the Mighty Have Stumbled

The 2025-26 season is Tottenham’s 48th consecutive season in the top flight and 34th consecutive in the Premier League, with the club also making a debut appearance in the UEFA Super Cup after winning the Europa League final 1-0 against Manchester United the previous season. Yet here they stand, staring into the abyss of relegation for the first time since 1977-78.

The numbers are damning. Six straight losses in all competitions, something that’s never happened in the club’s nearly 144-year history, and eleven matches without a win in the Premier League, also a first. Tottenham have won just two of their 15 home Premier League matches this season, making the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium one of the least intimidating home venues in the division.

Thomas Frank was appointed as head coach on a three-year contract before the season, replacing Ange Postecoglou who was sacked at the end of the previous campaign. Captain Son Heung-min left for Los Angeles FC after ten years at the club during the summer transfer window. The loss of Son proved catastrophic. His leadership, goals, and ability to drag Spurs through difficult moments could not be replaced.

On 11 February, Tottenham sacked Thomas Frank following a run of two wins in 17 league games, with the club in 16th position at the time of his departure. Igor Tudor was announced as Frank’s successor on 14 February until the end of the season. Tudor started with four consecutive defeats before finally securing a point in his fifth match: a 1-1 draw at Liverpool with Richarlison scoring in the 90th minute.

The squad is ravaged by injuries. Bissouma is out with a muscle injury until early April, Davies is dealing with an ankle issue that will keep him out until mid-April, Kulusevski is working through a knee problem aiming for a return in early May, whilst Palhinha remains a doubt due to concussion and a hamstring injury has put Bentancur on the sidelines until mid-April.

Yet there remains a glimmer of hope in the form of Dominic Solanke. The striker has bagged 21 goals in 29 Premier League games this season, averaging 0.72 goals per 90 minutes and hitting the target with half of his total shots. In a team starved of quality and consistency, Solanke has been a rare beacon of excellence.

The Boardroom Reckoning: ENIC Under Siege

The depth of Tottenham’s crisis extends far beyond the pitch. This is an institutional collapse, one that has prompted an extraordinary internal investigation and public admission of failure from the very top of the club.

During a meeting with the fan advisory board this month, chief executive Vinai Venkatesham presented the findings of a comprehensive review. The results made for uncomfortable reading. Among the key issues identified: insufficient focus across the organisation regarding on-pitch success, a wage structure and player transaction approach that had impacted competitiveness in the transfer market, a men’s squad requiring strengthening in terms of quality, experience and leadership, financial pressures arising from heavy transfer spending and limited player sales, and a growing disconnect between the club and its supporter base.

On 4 September 2025, after nearly 25 years at the helm, Daniel Levy resigned his position as chairman. His departure marked the end of an era, yet the Lewis family, which owns the ENIC Group that holds an 86.58% majority stake in Tottenham, remains firmly in control. Levy himself maintains a 29.88% stake in the ENIC Group, meaning his influence has not entirely dissipated.

Coughlin continued: “All of them deserve the blame and all of them have to face the music come the final game of the season when we know our fate. I believe Vinai Venkatesham and sporting director Johan Lange should not be keeping their jobs the way they’ve handled being in control of such a proud, historic club. It feels like this year they’ve sat there and laughed in our faces.”

If Tottenham are relegated for the first time since 1977-78, what consequences will the ownership face? The answer, in all likelihood, is very few. The Lewis family are not football romantics; they are investors. Relegation would represent a financial catastrophe, certainly, with the club built around maximising income from their magnificent stadium. But they cannot be sacked, cannot be voted out, cannot be forced to sell unless they choose to do so. The lack of meaningful accountability mechanisms represents one of football’s greatest structural flaws.

The FFP Stranglehold: How Regulations Have Hamstrung Spurs

The Profitability and Sustainability Rules, implemented since the 2015-16 season, allow clubs to incur losses of up to £105m over a three-year cycle, with the aim of preventing overspending and promoting financial sustainability.

Yet Tottenham’s internal review identified financial pressures arising from heavy transfer spending and limited player sales, increasing the relevance of Financial Fair Play constraints to future planning. This is the bitter irony of their situation. Whilst other clubs in the traditional Big Six can leverage massive revenues to outspend competitors within FFP parameters, Spurs have found themselves boxed in by past errors.

The club’s business model was predicated on consistent Champions League qualification. Champions League teams earn £15.7 million just for qualifying, plus £1.8m per win and £590,000 per draw in the group stages. Missing out on that revenue stream repeatedly has created a squeeze. Heavy spending in previous windows, combined with limited success in player sales and the absence of lucrative European runs, has left Tottenham financially constrained at precisely the moment they need to invest heavily to avoid disaster.

The cruel paradox is this: FFP was designed to prevent clubs from spending themselves into oblivion, yet for Tottenham it has become a straitjacket preventing them from making the investments needed to escape relegation. They cannot simply throw money at the problem, even if ownership were willing to do so. The regulations prevent it.

Forest: European Success Masking Domestic Disaster

Whilst Tottenham’s collapse has dominated headlines, Nottingham Forest’s plight is equally desperate, if more perplexing. How does a club reach the Europa League quarter-finals whilst simultaneously fighting for Premier League survival?

Forest reached the quarter-finals with a penalty shoot-out victory over Midtjylland on Thursday, with Pereira making nine changes ahead of this very fixture. Morgan Gibbs-White, Ibrahim Sangaré and Neco Williams converted Forest’s three kicks to extend the club’s first European campaign since 1995-96, when they reached the UEFA Cup quarter-finals.

The decision to prioritise Thursday’s Europa League tie over Sunday’s relegation six-pointer tells you everything about the mixed signals emanating from the City Ground. Pereira benched a host of key players, insisting he did what he “must do” in making nine changes from last weekend’s match against Fulham.

The quarter-final draw pits Forest against Porto in April: formidable opponents. But their immediate concern is survival. The managerial carousel has been dizzying. Four permanent head coaches in a single season represents extraordinary dysfunction. Each appointment tells a story of panic, of short-term thinking, of an ownership structure that reacts rather than plans.

This is Forest’s fourth consecutive season competing in the Premier League, and also their first in a UEFA competition for 29 years. Owner Evangelos Marinakis has bankrolled an ambitious project, yet his impatience has created instability. Morgan Gibbs-White, with 8 goals and 2 assists across 2,483 Premier League minutes, carries the creative burden. But one player cannot salvage a campaign defined by collective failure.

Sunday: A Match Neither Can Afford to Lose

The stakes could scarcely be higher. Tottenham are 16th with a record of 7-9-14. Forest, one point and one place below them, know that victory would drag Spurs deeper into the mire whilst providing breathing space for themselves.

The psychological dimension cannot be understated. Whichever side loses will face an international break stewing on their predicament, their manager’s position under renewed scrutiny, their squad’s fragility exposed. The winner gains not just points but precious momentum, belief, the sense that survival remains achievable.

Tudor has been handed at least two more games to save his job after the draw at Liverpool. Tottenham have decided to keep him in charge for upcoming games against Atlético Madrid and Nottingham Forest. But defeat to Forest, combined with the likely Champions League elimination by Atlético, would surely spell the end.

For Pereira, the situation is equally precarious. He is Forest’s fourth head coach of the season, parachuted in to deliver miracles with a squad low on confidence and ravaged by constant change. Neither manager has time to implement a philosophy, to reshape a squad, to build relationships. They are firefighters, tasked with preventing immolation through sheer force of will.

The Final Reckoning

English football’s history is littered with tales of fallen giants. Leeds United, Nottingham Forest themselves in 1993, Newcastle United in 2009. Size, heritage, stadium capacity: none of these things guarantee Premier League status. Tottenham are discovering this truth the hardest way possible.

The disarray derby encapsulates everything broken about modern football: short-termism, managerial instability, financial constraints that prevent rational investment, ownership structures insulated from accountability, and clubs whose identity has become subsumed by the pursuit of revenue rather than sporting success.

Sunday will not resolve these issues. It will merely determine which club edges marginally closer to safety and which slides further towards catastrophe. In a season defined by chaos, dysfunction and desperation, that is the best either Tottenham or Nottingham Forest can hope for.